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By Joyce Mukucha
The 2021 Production Gap Report, released this Wednesday by leading research institutes and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) revealed that despite increased climate ambitions and net-zero commitments, governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
The report which was first launched in 2019 measures the gap between governments’ planned production of coal, oil, and gas and the global production levels consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement temperature limits.
Two years later, the 2021 report finds the production gap largely unchanged.
The report said,”Over the next two decades, governments are collectively projecting an increase in global oil and gas production, and only a modest decrease in coal production. Taken together, their plans and projections see global, total fossil fuel production increasing out to at least 2040, creating an ever-widening production gap.”
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said there was still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C but only just, as she reiterated that at COP26 Governments must take immediate steps to close the fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition.
“The devastating impacts of climate change are here for all to see. There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C, but this window of opportunity is rapidly closing,” says Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. At COP26 and beyond, the world’s governments must step up, taking rapid and immediate steps to close the fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition. This is what climate ambition looks like,” she said.
This year’s report provides profiles for 15 major producer countries, showing that most will continue to support fossil fuel production growth.
These include; Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
“The country profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy support for fossil fuel production,” the report indicated.
A lead author on the report and Environment Institute(SEI)scientist, Ploy Achakulwisut said,“The research is clear: global coal, oil, and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C. However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil fuel production that are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn.”
In its major findings, the report has it that the world’s governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 45% more than consistent with 2°C.
“The size of the production gap has remained largely unchanged compared to our prior assessments. Governments’ production plans and projections would lead to about 240% more coal, 57% more oil, and 71% more gas in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C,” the report highlighted.
Global gas production is projected to increase the most between 2020 and 2040 based on governments’ plans.
This continued, long-term global expansion in gas production is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature limits.
Countries have directed over USD 300 billion in new funds towards fossil fuel activities since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic more than they have towards clean energy.
The report also indicated that in contrast, international public finance for production of fossil fuels from G20 countries and major multilateral development banks (MDBs) has significantly decreased in recent years; one-third of MDBs and G20 development finance institutions (DFIs) by asset size have adopted policies that exclude fossil fuel production activities from future finance.
The report emphasised that verifiable and comparable information on fossil fuel production and support from both governments and companies is essential to addressing the production gap.
Senior Policy Advisor, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Lucile Dufour said, “Early efforts from development finance institutions to cut international support for fossil fuel production are encouraging, but these changes need to be followed by concrete and ambitious fossil fuel exclusion policies to limit global warming to 1.5°C.”
Meanwhile, the Executive Director at SEI, Måns Nilsson pointed out that fossil-fuel-producing nations must recognize their role and responsibility in closing the production gap and steering us towards a safe climate future.
“As countries increasingly commit to net-zero emissions by mid-century, they also need to recognize the rapid reduction in fossil fuel production that their climate targets will require,” said Nilsson.
Responding to the report, the UN Secretary General, António Guterres stressed the need for public and private sectors in various nation’s to join hands and promote decarbonization.
“It is urgent that all remaining public financiers as well as private finance, including commercial banks and asset managers, switch their funding from coal to renewables to promote full decarbonization of the power sector and access to renewable energy for all”, Guteress said.
The report is produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Overseas Development Institute (ODI), E3G, and UNEP.
Various researchers contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks and other research organizations.